Uke waphawula ukuthi igama elithi “i-optical fiber” selivele lashisa kakhulu ngokuzumayo?
Kusukela ekupheleni kuka-2025 kuya ekuqaleni kuka-2026, ezinyangeni ezimbalwa nje, imakethe ye-optical fiber yaphula iminyaka yokungalali, kokubili ivolumu kanye namanani enyuka, kanye nokushisa kwemakethe kuqhubeka nokwenyuka. Lokhu akuyona ukuguquguquka kwesikhathi esifushane, kodwa ushintsho lwesakhiwo oluqhutshwa ushintsho lwezobuchwepheshe. Namuhla, ake sibheke ukuthi kungani i-optical fiber ibe “shisa” kangaka ngokuzumayo ngo-2026.
I. Amandla Okusebenzisa Ikhompyutha Ye-AI: Isidingo Sokuvutha Kwenjini Eyinhloko
Esikhathini esedlule,i-fiber ebonakalayoIsidingo sasivela kakhulu kubaqhubi bezokuxhumana—iziteshi ze-FTTH broadband kanye neziteshi ze-5G—ngokuyisisekelo bephendula umbuzo wokuthi “ukuxhumana kukhona yini.”
Kodwa kusukela ngo-2025, amandla ashukumisayo aqala ukushintsha. Ukuthuthukiswa okusheshayo kwe-AI ekhiqizayo kanye namamodeli ezilimi ezinkulu kulethe inani elikhulu lezikhungo zedatha ze-AI ezinkulu kakhulu. Lezi zinhlelo, ezakhiwe amashumi ezinkulungwane zama-GPU, zibeke izidingo eziphezulu ekudlulisweni kwedatha—ububanzi obukhulu kanye nokubambezeleka okuphansi.
Lokhu kuholele ezinguqukweni ezimbili:
(1) Ukukhula Okuphawulekayo Kwesidingo Sefayibha Yokukhanya
Izinga lokudluliswa kwedatha ngaphakathi kwezikhungo zedatha ze-AI naphakathi kwamaqoqo ekhompyutha likhuphuke kakhulu. Inani lokuxhumeka kwe-optical liphezulu kakhulu kunezikhungo zedatha zendabuko, okuqhuba ukukhula okusheshayo kwesidingo se-optical fiber.
(2) Izidingo Zokusebenza Ezikhuphukile Zamanethiwekhi
Njengoba izidingo zomthamo wokudlulisa kanye nebanga zikhuphuka, isidingo sefayibha yokukhanya elahlekelwa kancane (njenge-G.654.E) sikhula kancane kancane kumanethiwekhi omgogodla kanye nezimo zokudlulisa ezinamandla aphezulu. Okwamanje, ngaphakathi kwezikhungo zedatha, ifayibha yemodi eyodwa noma evamile isetshenziswa kakhulu ngokubambisana namamojula okukhanya asheshayo.
Ngamafuphi: amandla ashukumisayo ngemuva kwesidingo sefayibha yokukhanya ashintsha kancane kancane esuka “kumanethiwekhi othwala” aye “kumanethiwekhi ekhompyutha.”
II. Izithiyo Zokuphakelwa: Izithiyo Eziyinhloko Echungechungeni Lwemboni
Nakuba isidingo sikhula ngokushesha, uhlangothi lokunikezwa kwempahla lubhekene nobunzima bokukhula ngesivinini esifanayo.
Ingqikithi yemboni ye-optical fiber itholakala ku-preform ye-optical fiber, enquma amandla kanye nokusebenza kokukhiqizwa kwe-fiber. Le ngxenye inezithiyo zobuchwepheshe eziphezulu, idinga ukutshalwa kwezimali okukhulu, futhi inomjikelezo omude wokwandiswa kwamandla (ngokuvamile izinyanga ezingu-18-24). Iningi lenzuzo yemboni nalo ligxile lapha.
Eminyakeni yamuva nje, ngenxa yokuncintisana okukhulu kwamanani, izinkampani bezilokhu ziqaphela ngokwandisa umkhiqizo. Lapho isidingo sikhuphuka ngo-2026, umthamo wangaphambi kokukhiqiza wawususondele ekugcwaleni, okwenza kwaba nzima ukwanda ngokushesha esikhathini esifushane.
Ngesikhathi esifanayo, umthamo olinganiselwe ubekwe phambili emikhiqizweni enenani eliphezulu, okwenza kube nzima nakakhulu ukuqina kokunikezwa.
III. Ukungafani Kokunikezwa Kwempahla Nezidingo: Imboni Ingena Emjikelezweni Ophezulu
Ngakolunye uhlangothi kukhona ukukhula kwesidingo okubangelwa yi-AI; ngakolunye uhlangothi kukhona ukulinganiselwa kwamandla okunikezwayo. Ukungafani kokunikezwayo nesidingo kuvela kancane kancane.
Izinhlangano eziningi zezimboni zibikezela ukuthi imakethe yomhlaba wonke ye-optical fiber izohlala isesimweni esiqinile kuze kube ngu-2026 no-2027.
Lolu shintsho luletha imiphumela eminingana:
(1) Ukubuyiselwa Kwentengo
Ngenxa yokufunwa, amanani e-optical fiber ayathuthuka kancane kancane, futhi imboni iya ngokuya isuka ekuncintisaneni okuhlala isikhathi eside ngamanani aphansi.
(2) Ukushintsha Kwendlela Yokuncintisana
Imboni ishintsha isuka “ekusekelweni kwentengo” iye “ekusekelweni kwekhwalithi kanye nobuchwepheshe.” Izinkampani ezinekhono eliphelele lochungechunge lwemboni—kusukela ekubunjweni kwe-preform kuya ku-fiber—zinezinzuzo ekuzinzeni nasekulawuleni izindleko.
(3) Ukunaka Okukhulisiwe Kwemakethe
Njengoba imizwa yemboni ithuthuka, uchungechunge lwemboni yezokuxhumana kwe-optical luphinde lwaba yinto ebalulekile emakethe.
IV. Umthelela Embonini Yezinto Zocingo Nezintambo
Ukukhula kwesidingo sefayibha ye-optical nakho kudlulisela phezulu kubaphakeli bezinto ezibonakalayo.
Enqubweni yokukhiqiza ikhebula le-optical, isidingo sikhula ngasikhathi sinye sezinto ezibalulekile ezifana ne-PBT (izinto zeshubhu ezikhululekile),I-FRP(ilungu lamandla), itheyiphu yokuvimba amanzi, uboya bokuvimba amanzi, kanye ne-XLPE (izinto zomgobo). Njengoba izikali zephrojekthi zanda futhi imininingwane yomkhiqizo ithuthuka, izidingo zokusebenza kwezinto kanye nokungaguquguquki nazo ziyanda.
Lokhu kusho ukuthi abahlinzeki bezinto zocingo nezekhebula abanezikhungo zomkhiqizo eziphelele kanye namakhono okuhlinzeka azinzile bazoba namathuba amaningi kulo mjikelezo.
Isiphetho
Ukufudumala kwemakethe ye-optical fiber ngo-2026 akuyona ingozi, kodwa umphumela ongenakugwenywa wokuthuthukiswa okuqhubekayo kwengqalasizinda yedijithali.
Ngokuthuthuka kwamandla okubala e-AI, i-optical fiber ishintsha kancane kancane isuka esiteshini sokudlulisa ulwazi sendabuko iye kwingqalasizinda ebalulekile esekela amanethiwekhi okubala. Ubukhulu kanye nesivinini sokugeleza kwedatha kuyanda njalo, okubeka izidingo eziphezulu ezinhlelweni zokuxhumana kwe-optical.
Ngaphansi kwethonya elihlangene lokukhula kwesidingo kanye nemikhawulo yokuhlinzekwa, imboni kulindeleke ukuthi ingene esigabeni esisha sentuthuko. Embonini yezokuxhumana kwe-optical kanye nochungechunge lwayo lokuhlinzekwa kwezinto ezihlobene, lo mjikelezo ungase ube yisiqalo nje.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Ephreli-24-2026